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Zawody, które znikną – specjalizacje, w których rozwija się robotyka

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Czy mój zawód jest zagrożony? – zadają sobie pytanie pracownicy. – Czy mógłbym zwolnić niektórych pracowników i zastąpić ich robotami? – stawiają sobie to samo pytanie pracodawcy. Oto lista kilkuset zawodów, które w ciągu najbliższych 10-20 lat mają wyeliminować roboty. Powinni się z nią zapoznać przede wszystkim licealiści, którzy rozważają właśnie wybór kierunku studiów.

Magazyn „Wprost” opublikował obiecującą (dla pracodawców) informację, że postępy robotyki lada moment wyeliminują 700 zawodów. Niestety, artykuł wygląda na niezweryfikowany przez nikogo przedruk wypowiedzi Małgorzaty Majewskiej, dyrektora ds. marketingu w Monsterpolska.pl – w której to wypowiedzi roi się od błędów.

Oryginalne badanie Oxford Martin Programme ma nieco inny wydźwięk [PDF]. Naukowcy zbadali 702 zawody w Stanach Zjednoczonych pod kątem możliwości zastąpienia ich przez postępującą komputeryzację i robotyzację. Ich zdaniem w ciągu najbliższych 10-20 lat zagrożonych jest 47 procent z nich, czyli 330 zawodów.

Oto przedruk ilustracji z pracy badawczej:

Które zawody ZNIKNĄ - jakie zawody zostaną wyparte przez roboty i komputery330 zawodów, w których roboty i komputery zastąpią ludzi

Lista zawiera 330 zawodów, w których prawdopodobieństwo wyeliminowania przez roboty w przeciągu najbliższych 10-20 lat jest większe niż 75 procent.

W kolumnach umieszczone są odpowiednio:

  • Pozycja na liście w badaniu (np. „409.”).
  • Prawdopodobieństwo wyeliminowania przez komputery lub roboty (np. „0.75”), gdzie „1” oznacza pewność, czyli prawdopodobieństwo równe 100 procent.
  • Nazwę zawodu w języku angielskim, np. „Postmasters and Mail Superintendents”.

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702. 0.99 Telemarketerzy
701. 0.99 Title Examiners, Abstractors, and Searchers
700. 0.99 Szwacze / szwaczki szyjące ręcznie
699. 0.99 Technicy rachunkowi
698. 0.99 Insurance Underwriters
697. 0.99 Watch Repairers
696. 0.99 Cargo and Freight Agents
695. 0.99 Tax Preparers
694. 0.99 Photographic Process Workers and Processing Machine Operators
693. 0.99 New Accounts Clerks
692. 0.99 Library Technicians
691. 0.99 Data Entry Keyers
690. 0.98 Timing Device Assemblers and Adjusters
689. 0.98 Insurance Claims and Policy Processing Clerks
688. 0.98 Brokerage Clerks
687. 0.98 Order Clerks
686. 0.98 Loan Officers
685. 0.98 Insurance Appraisers, Auto Damage
684. 0.98 Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials
683. 0.98 Tellers
682. 0.98 Etchers and Engravers
681. 0.98 Packaging and Filling Machine Operators and Tenders
680. 0.98 Procurement Clerks
679. 0.98 Shipping, Receiving, and Traffic Clerks
678. 0.98 Milling and Planing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and
Plastic
677. 0.98 Credit Analysts
676. 0.98 Parts Salespersons
675. 0.98 Claims Adjusters, Examiners, and Investigators
674. 0.98 Driver/Sales Workers
673. 0.98 Radio Operators
672. 0.98 Legal Secretaries
671. 0.98 Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks
670. 0.98 Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers
669. 0.98 Models
668. 0.97 Hosts and Hostesses, Restaurant, Lounge, and Coffee Shop
667. 0.97 Credit Authorizers, Checkers, and Clerks
666. 0.97 Payroll and Timekeeping Clerks
665. 0.97 Agricultural and Food Science Technicians
664. 0.97 Telephone Operators
663. 0.97 Real Estate Brokers
662. 0.97 File Clerks
661. 0.97 Counter and Rental Clerks
660. 0.97 Prepress Technicians and Workers
659. 0.97 Motion Picture Projectionists
658. 0.97 Camera and Photographic Equipment Repairers
657. 0.97 Cashiers
656. 0.97 Ophthalmic Laboratory Technicians
655. 0.97 Log Graders and Scalers
654. 0.97 Pesticide Handlers, Sprayers, and Applicators, Vegetation
653. 0.97 Grinding and Polishing Workers, Hand
652. 0.97 Crushing, Grinding, and Polishing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders
651. 0.97 Dental Laboratory Technicians
650. 0.97 Textile Bleaching and Dyeing Machine Operators and Tenders
649. 0.97 Farm Labor Contractors
648. 0.97 Electromechanical Equipment Assemblers
647. 0.97 Shoe Machine Operators and Tenders
646. 0.97 Team Assemblers
645. 0.97 Woodworking Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Except Sawing
644. 0.97 Bridge and Lock Tenders
643. 0.96 Billing and Posting Clerks
642. 0.96 Ushers, Lobby Attendants, and Ticket Takers
641. 0.96 Cooks, Restaurant
640. 0.96 Fabric Menders, Except Garment
639. 0.96 Gaming Dealers
638. 0.96 Locomotive Engineers
637. 0.96 Textile Winding, Twisting, and Drawing Out Machine Setters, Operators,
and Tenders
636. 0.96 Model Makers, Wood
635. 0.96 Surveying and Mapping Technicians
634. 0.96 Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical,
and Executive
633. 0.96 Rock Splitters, Quarry
632. 0.96 Counter Attendants, Cafeteria, Food Concession, and Coffee Shop
631. 0.96 Switchboard Operators, Including Answering Service
630. 0.96 Compensation and Benefits Managers
629. 0.96 Office Clerks, General
628. 0.96 Receptionists and Information Clerks
627. 0.96 Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, and Ambulance
626. 0.95 Jewelers and Precious Stone and Metal Workers
625. 0.95 Postal Service Clerks
624. 0.95 Grinding, Lapping, Polishing, and Buffing Machine Tool Setters, Operators,
and Tenders, Metal and Plastic
623. 0.95 Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers
622. 0.95 Adhesive Bonding Machine Operators and Tenders
621. 0.95 Electrical and Electronic Equipment Assemblers
620. 0.95 Molding, Coremaking, and Casting Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders,
Metal and Plastic
619. 0.95 Animal Breeders
618. 0.95 Print Binding and Finishing Workers
617. 0.95 Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators
616. 0.95 Library Assistants, Clerical
615. 0.95 Gaming Surveillance Officers and Gaming Investigators
614. 0.95 Nuclear Power Reactor Operators
613. 0.95 Bill and Account Collectors
612. 0.95 Textile Cutting Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders
611. 0.95 Weighers, Measurers, Checkers, and Samplers, Recordkeeping
610. 0.95 Manicurists and Pedicurists
609. 0.94 Paralegals and Legal Assistants
608. 0.94 Agricultural Inspectors
607. 0.94 First-Line Supervisors of Housekeeping and Janitorial Workers
606. 0.94 Door-to-Door Sales Workers, News and Street Vendors, and Related Workers
605. 0.94 Tire Builders
604. 0.94 Hotel, Motel, and Resort Desk Clerks
603. 0.94 Helpers–Painters, Paperhangers, Plasterers, and Stucco Masons
602. 0.94 Excavating and Loading Machine and Dragline Operators
601. 0.94 Cooks, Short Order
600. 0.94 Interviewers, Except Eligibility and Loan
599. 0.94 Couriers and Messengers
598. 0.94 Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers
597. 0.94 Coin, Vending, and Amusement Machine Servicers and Repairers
596. 0.94 Bicycle Repairers
595. 0.94 Cement Masons and Concrete Finishers
594. 0.94 Budget Analysts
593. 0.94 Meat, Poultry, and Fish Cutters and Trimmers
592. 0.94 Waiters and Waitresses
591. 0.94 Mail Clerks and Mail Machine Operators, Except Postal Service
590. 0.94 Drilling and Boring Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and
Plastic
589. 0.94 Accountants and Auditors
588. 0.93 Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators
587. 0.93 Forging Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic
586. 0.93 Tax Examiners and Collectors, and Revenue Agents
585. 0.93 Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors
584. 0.93 Extruding, Forming, Pressing, and Compacting Machine Setters, Operators, and
Tenders
583. 0.93 Butchers and Meat Cutters
582. 0.93 Radio, Cellular, and Tower Equipment Installers and Repairs
581. 0.93 Model Makers, Metal and Plastic
580. 0.93 Machine Feeders and Offbearers
579. 0.93 Locomotive Firers
578. 0.93 Outdoor Power Equipment and Other Small Engine Mechanics
577. 0.93 Conveyor Operators and Tenders
576. 0.93 Service Unit Operators, Oil, Gas, and Mining
575. 0.93 Fiberglass Laminators and Fabricators
574. 0.93 Cooling and Freezing Equipment Operators and Tenders
573. 0.92 Helpers–Carpenters
572. 0.92 Production Workers, All Other
571. 0.92 Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food
570. 0.92 Retail Salespersons
569. 0.92 Plating and Coating Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and
Plastic
568. 0.92 Fence Erectors
567. 0.92 Painting, Coating, and Decorating Workers
566. 0.92 Cabinetmakers and Bench Carpenters
565. 0.92 Insurance Sales Agents
564. 0.92 Dredge Operators
563. 0.92 Loan Interviewers and Clerks
562. 0.92 Pharmacy Technicians
561. 0.92 Office Machine Operators, Except Computer
560. 0.91 Extruding and Drawing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and
Plastic
559. 0.91 Patternmakers, Wood
558. 0.91 Automotive Body and Related Repairers
557. 0.91 Geological and Petroleum Technicians
556. 0.91 Heat Treating Equipment Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic
555. 0.91 Dining Room and Cafeteria Attendants and Bartender Helpers
554. 0.91 Electrical and Electronics Installers and Repairers, Transportation
Equipment
553. 0.91 Rail Yard Engineers, Dinkey Operators, and Hostlers
552. 0.91 Multiple Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic
551. 0.91 Coating, Painting, and Spraying Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders
550. 0.91 Medical Records and Health Information Technicians
549. 0.91 Gas Compressor and Gas Pumping Station Operators
548. 0.91 Food and Tobacco Roasting, Baking, and Drying Machine Operators and Tenders
547. 0.91 Mechanical Door Repairers
546. 0.91 Tour Guides and Escorts
545. 0.91 Musical Instrument Repairers and Tuners
544. 0.91 Gaming and Sports Book Writers and Runners
543. 0.9 Signal and Track Switch Repairers
542. 0.9 Pump Operators, Except Wellhead Pumpers
541. 0.9 Appraisers and Assessors of Real Estate
540. 0.9 Molders, Shapers, and Casters, Except Metal and Plastic
539. 0.9 Patternmakers, Metal and Plastic
538. 0.9 Transportation Inspectors
537. 0.9 Traffic Technicians
536. 0.9 Crane and Tower Operators
535. 0.9 Roofers
534. 0.9 Reinforcing Iron and Rebar Workers
533. 0.9 Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technologists
532. 0.9 Human Resources Assistants, Except Payroll and Timekeeping
531. 0.89 Taxi Drivers and Chauffeurs
530. 0.89 Sewing Machine Operators
529. 0.89 Stationary Engineers and Boiler Operators
528. 0.89 Rail-Track Laying and Maintenance Equipment Operators
527. 0.89 Riggers
526. 0.89 Technical Writers
525. 0.89 Bus Drivers, School or Special Client
524. 0.89 Stonemasons
523. 0.89 Medical Transcriptionists
522. 0.89 Bakers
521. 0.88 Rail Car Repairers
520. 0.88 Tool Grinders, Filers, and Sharpeners
519. 0.88 Terrazzo Workers and Finishers
518. 0.88 Extruding and Forming Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Synthetic
and Glass Fibers
517. 0.88 Separating, Filtering, Clarifying, Precipitating, and Still Machine Setters,
Operators, and Tenders
516. 0.88 Metal-Refining Furnace Operators and Tenders
515. 0.88 Cartographers and Photogrammetrists
514. 0.88 Semiconductor Processors
513. 0.88 Production, Planning, and Expediting Clerks
512. 0.88 Construction Laborers
511. 0.87 Highway Maintenance Workers
510. 0.87 Parking Lot Attendants
509. 0.87 Floor Sanders and Finishers
508. 0.87 Food Preparation Workers
507. 0.87 Furniture Finishers
506. 0.87 Buyers and Purchasing Agents, Farm Products
505. 0.87 Paperhangers
504. 0.87 Carpet Installers
503. 0.87 Pourers and Casters, Metal
502. 0.87 Forest and Conservation Workers
501. 0.87 Miscellaneous Agricultural Workers
500. 0.86 Correspondence Clerks
499. 0.86 Maintenance Workers, Machinery
498. 0.86 Computer-Controlled Machine Tool Operators, Metal and Plastic
497. 0.86 Real Estate Sales Agents
496. 0.86 Cutting and Slicing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders
495. 0.86 Veterinary Assistants and Laboratory Animal Caretakers
494. 0.86 Subway and Streetcar Operators
493. 0.86 Sawing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Wood
492. 0.86 Food Servers, Nonrestaurant
491. 0.86 Plant and System Operators, All Other
490. 0.86 Executive Secretaries and Executive Administrative Assistants
489. 0.85 Nuclear Technicians
488. 0.85 Earth Drillers, Except Oil and Gas
487. 0.85 Chemical Plant and System Operators
486. 0.85 Power Plant Operators
485. 0.85 Meter Readers, Utilities
484. 0.85 Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and
Scientific Products
483. 0.85 Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand
482. 0.84 Parking Enforcement Workers
481. 0.84 Proofreaders and Copy Markers
480. 0.84 Wellhead Pumpers
479. 0.84 Tailors, Dressmakers, and Custom Sewers
478. 0.84 Security Guards
477. 0.84 Lathe and Turning Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and
Plastic
476. 0.84 Layout Workers, Metal and Plastic
475. 0.84 Plasterers and Stucco Masons
474. 0.84 Electrical and Electronics Engineering Technicians
473. 0.84 Tool and Die Makers
472. 0.83 Paving, Surfacing, and Tamping Equipment Operators
471. 0.83 Rolling Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic
470. 0.83 Gaming Change Persons and Booth Cashiers
469. 0.83 Baggage Porters and Bellhops
468. 0.83 Septic Tank Servicers and Sewer Pipe Cleaners
467. 0.83 Automotive and Watercraft Service Attendants
466. 0.83 Printing Press Operators
465. 0.83 Insulation Workers, Floor, Ceiling, and Wall
464. 0.83 Segmental Pavers
463. 0.83 Helpers–Brickmasons, Blockmasons, Stonemasons, and Tile and Marble Setters
462. 0.83 Mixing and Blending Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders
461. 0.83 Sailors and Marine Oilers
460. 0.83 Cooks, Institution and Cafeteria
459. 0.83 Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters
458. 0.83 Railroad Brake, Signal, and Switch Operators
457. 0.83 Structural Iron and Steel Workers
456. 0.83 Fishers and Related Fishing Workers
455. 0.82 Brickmasons and Blockmasons
454. 0.82 Pile-Driver Operators
453. 0.82 Sheet Metal Workers
452. 0.82 Nonfarm Animal Caretakers
451. 0.82 Refractory Materials Repairers, Except Brickmasons
450. 0.82 Security and Fire Alarm Systems Installers
449. 0.82 Engine and Other Machine Assemblers
448. 0.81 Pressers, Textile, Garment, and Related Materials
447. 0.81 Medical Secretaries
446. 0.81 Property, Real Estate, and Community Association Managers
445. 0.81 Cleaning, Washing, and Metal Pickling Equipment Operators and Tenders
444. 0.81 Electro-Mechanical Technicians
443. 0.81 Electrical and Electronics Drafters
442. 0.81 Word Processors and Typists
441. 0.81 Cooks, Fast Food
440. 0.8 Derrick Operators, Oil and Gas
439. 0.8 Barbers
438. 0.79 Floor Layers, Except Carpet, Wood, and Hard Tiles
437. 0.79 Logging Equipment Operators
436. 0.79 Aircraft Structure, Surfaces, Rigging, and Systems Assemblers
435. 0.79 Motorcycle Mechanics
434. 0.79 Helpers–Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Workers
433. 0.79 Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers
432. 0.79 Shampooers
431. 0.79 Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers
430. 0.79 Postal Service Mail Sorters, Processors, and Processing Machine Operators
429. 0.78 Gas Plant Operators
428. 0.78 Computer Operators
427. 0.78 Cutting, Punching, and Press Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal
and Plastic
426. 0.78 Medical Equipment Preparers
425. 0.77 Hunters and Trappers
424. 0.77 Dishwashers
423. 0.77 Purchasing Agents, Except Wholesale, Retail, and Farm Products
422. 0.77 Bartenders
421. 0.77 Tree Trimmers and Pruners
420. 0.77 Locksmiths and Safe Repairers
419. 0.77 Environmental Science and Protection Technicians, Including Health
418. 0.76 Fallers
417. 0.76 Electric Motor, Power Tool, and Related Repairers
416. 0.76 Chemical Equipment Operators and Tenders
415. 0.76 Archivists
414. 0.75 Farm Equipment Mechanics and Service Technicians
413. 0.75 Civil Engineering Technicians
412. 0.75 Transportation Attendants, Except Flight Attendants
411. 0.75 Painters, Construction and Maintenance
410. 0.75 Tile and Marble Setters
409. 0.75 Postmasters and Mail Superintendents

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